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  • #16

    CAD/JPY: fundamental review and forecast



    Positive economic data from Japan significantly impacted the rates. Seems like formation of the new upward trend.


    The rates continue in the frames of the upward trend, but we can see on the chart formation of a weak downtrend. Formation of a new trend is based on the decreasing of oil prices and worsening of trade relations between the United States and Canada.

    This week the Japanese yen continued to strengthen due to the positive data on the economy. The country's GDP unexpectedly grew in the 2nd quarter by 1%, while it was expected growth in just 0.6%. Such a growth is the most rapid growth in the Japan's economy since more than 2 years. we hadn't seen the same significant growth since the 1st quarter of 2015. In annual terms, GDP growth was +4%, exceeding forecasts in 1.5%. It should also be noted that Japan's GDP grew for the sixth quarter in a row. Consumer spending indicator increased by 0.9% in Q2, exceeding the expected level in almost 2 times. And the volume of industrial production in June rose by 2.2% amid expectations of 1.6%.


    Thus, amid extremely positive statistics from Japan, it was very hard for canadian dollar to resist the yen. Strengthening of JPY would be even more rapid, but it was prevented by a factor of geopolitical tensions between the USA and North Korea, although the situation has been normalized to the usual level these week.


    Today the market is waiting for information from Canada's index of consumer prices in July, but likely it's not necessary to expect for significant strengthening of the CAD, given that oil is decreasing again amid information about achieving of the maximum levels of shale oil extraction in the USA over the past 2 years. Crude oil stocks fell significantly this week, but the increase in oil production will lead to rapid recovery of oil reserves. In addition, analysts have lowered their forecasts about demand of oil in China. It should be noted that If China started a massive shift to electric transportation, in accordance with the global trend, it would negatively impact the demand for oil in this country in the future.


    Oscillators MACD, Stochastics give contrary signals. In this situation, the most optimal would be to open the short deals upon medium term trading. For those who use short term strategies it's possible to open the deals to BUY, in accordance with Stochastics' signal making a profit on the price correction.


    Comment


    • #17


      Weekly Market Overview

      An update on the Euro and the American dollar in light of recent events.



      This week our gaze draws back to Europe. In our previous look at the euro we talked about how much it has strengthened this year, based on positive economic reports and favorable election outcomes. Let’s take a look at the situation in Europe now.


      The euro has been the shining star of Forex trading this year, gaining a remarkable 11.5% on the USD so far in 2017. In recent weeks investors’ appetites towards the euro increased amid an expectation that the European Central Bank will change its monetary policy toward a less dovish approach that supports an even stronger euro. Some analysts have even suggested that we may see a parity between the EUR and the British pound in the coming months. However, ECB chief Mario Draghi has not given any real indication that he plans to cut the stimulus program anytime soon.


      Now the euro is easing a little bit against the dollar as analysts prepare for the upcoming Jackson Hole conference on August 24-26, where Draghi will speak. The small drops in the price of the euro are likely a result of investors’ impatience regarding the ECB decision on monetary policy.


      On Wednesday the euro dropped from its 2015 height level and went 2% down to 1.1691 USD and 1.13960 CHF.


      Furthermore, the euro was able to gain on the dollar because of the political turmoil in the United States. Recent tensions with North Korea, as well as a neo-nazi attack both rattled the United States over the past two weeks. However, things seem to be cooling down with North Korea, and the US released some favorable data on retail sales (up by 0.6 in July) which helped the USD find a more solid ground. If the economy fares well and inflation increases, investors would again look to the dollar as an attractive trading instrument and expect the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates again.


      However, economic data from the United States has fluctuated throughout 2017. Inflation and wage growth haven’t been at the expected levels, and the Federal Reserve has been extremely careful about adjusting its policies. This is why right now another rate hike is unlikely. Even if rates are increased in the coming months, analysts don’t expect multiple hikes, as was initially planned.




      Comment


      • #18


        AUD/JPY Technical Outlook & H4 Chart


        We have a bearish reversal underway or possibly a buying opportunity.


        The AUD/JPY currency pair sold off heavily this month following the retesting of the new area of resistance between 89.00 and 89.30 which we referred to in our last report about the pair. Last week the pair made a top smaller than the previous one, which means we are in a downside wave. We have to be careful because we recognized a bottom higher than the previous one, so that we have two trend lines - one for the uptrend and a second one for the downtrend.


        The pair has a support area at 85.70-85.90. The prices reached it last week, so we can expect an upside movement this week, in addition to the pair reaching the 50% from the rising wave from 81.65 to 89.29. We can predict the pair will begin another series of impulse waves.


        The Next Few Days


        After we analyzed the chart well we can discover that we would work on the breaking out of the pair. If the AUD/JPY breaks the downtrend we will buy the pair and keep our targets at 88.20 and 89.05. Conversely, if it breaks the uptrend we will sell the pair and keep the target at 84.62 (61.8% Fibonacci). Still, we predict the pair will break the downtrend and rise again, so we can take buy positions now with a small lot at the current level 86.15 and keep the T/P level at 86.85, then wait for the breaking out.


        This week the markets don’t offer any hot news from Australia or Japan but you have to be careful about any uncalendared news that can change the market direction.

        Comment


        • #19


          NZD/JPY: Short Review and Forecast
          The downward trend was formed a month ago and continues amid positive economic news from Japan. The NZD is under the pressure of decreased prices for food and raw materials.



          The rates of the NZD/JPY since the beginning of the month are in the frames of the downward trend formed just a month ago. Despite the recent positive data about economy of New Zealand, where we can see a Federal budget surplus by 1.5 billion NZD, the New Zealand currency fell against major currencies. At the same time, it should be noted that the NZD did not have enough incentives for growth amid the absence of news about the economy. In addition, the NZD was under the pressure of the decreased prices for raw materials and food, which reached annual minimums this week. The price for wheat fell from $560 down to $403. At the same time the JPY had many stimuli to strengthen.


          The PMI index of business activity in August was 52.8 against the expected level of 52.3. The volume of imports and exports grew less than the expected - 16.3% versus 13.4%, respectively, and in the long term increased the pressure on the trade balance. However, in July the trade surplus in Japan narrowed by 17%, though it's 418 billion yen, exceeding the expectations of investors. A week earlier the yen strengthened due to the unexpected GDP growth by 1% and an increase in consumer spending which was almost twice higher than the market expectation. Therefore, the Japanese economy now looks better for investors.


          Tomorrow the NZD may get a chance to strengthen, if new data about the trade balance of New Zealand pleases investors. At the moment, oscillators (MACD, Stochastics, RSI) unanimously point to the rates in the oversold zone. The deals to BUY would be the most effective in this situation. There's a possibility to make a profit on the expected price correction.

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          • #20


            The Dollar Moving Down


            Amid the latest economic reports, the American currency is losing positions against all major currencies.


            The dollar fell sharply against all major currencies after the labor market data release in the US, which was worse than expected. As reported by the US Department of Labor, last month 156,000 jobs were created, which is below the projected 180,000. The indicator for July was revised downwards from 209,000 to 189,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, instead of the previously forecasted 4.3%. All of this indicates a worsening of the situation on the labor market. The report also shows the average hourly rate grew by 0.1% in August, compared to the expected growth of 0.2%. One of the main indicators of inflation, the Core PCE, has decreased to 1.4%, while at the beginning of the year it was above 1.8%. Such statistics practically leaves no chance for another increase in the discount rate this year.


            Federal Reserve representatives have expressed their concerns about the low dynamics of consumer prices over the recent months and its impact on the future monetary policy of the US Central Bank. Soon after the US statistics release, information from the ECB suddenly appeared. Sources in the European Central Bank, quoted by Bloomberg, declared that the plan for ending the quantitative easing program could be ready no earlier than December. "The politicians of the European Central Bank may not be ready to curtail the quantitative easing program until December," the sources said.


            After the release of US statistics, the EUR/USD rose 0.5% to 1.1970, approaching a two-and-a-half-year high on Tuesday (1.2069), but after a verbal intervention by the ECB, it returned to 1.1900. Earlier the euro surrendered its position after reports about the increasing number of ECB officials who are concerned about the recent strengthening of the European currency.

            Comment


            • #21
              USD/CHF Technical Analysis & Daily Chart


              With the recent development we see a potential for further growth in the USD/CHF rate.


              Today we direct our attention to the USD/CHF currency pair.


              The USD/CHF managed to rise above its support level at 0.9558 yesterday and mark new highs near 0.9670. We expect that this movement above the support would persist for a while. The price is approaching the nearby resistance level of 0.9693. If it manages to overcome that, we can see it grow further to the second resistance at 0.9725. As long as the pair moves above the support level at 0.9558, we hope to see a continuation of the bullish movement from yesterday.


              In terms of trading this pair well today, we should expect it to move within about 90 pips, based on the USD/CHF’s previous behavior on the market. Any buy positions should be placed above the pivot of 0.9558, with a first target at the resistance at 0.9693, and a second target at the next resistance level at 0.9725, which is likely the best candidate for a T/P order, as it is unlikely that the pair will be able to overcome it and would likely drop after testing it. However, this strategy is only suitable if the pair remains above 0.9558; if it drops below, we should close these positions.


              As of the moment of this article’s publication, the USD/CHF is trading around 0.9595 and technical indicators agree on a strong buy recommendation.



              Comment


              • #22


                USD/SEK: Review & Forecast


                The SEK achieved its level from November 2014 thanks to the weakened USD.


                The steady downward trend continues, but at the moment the rates have consolidated in the range SEK 7.908 - 8.0. The market hasn't received any economic statistics or news from Sweden which would have affected the Swedish Krona, but the stable economic situation in the Eurozone isn't putting pressure on its value.



                Since the end of August the rates have been influenced by the unstable political situation in the United States, the escalation of the conflict between the US and North Korea, and disappointing economic statistics in the United States. As a result, the value of the SEK has reached the level from November 2014, and the downward trend became more rapid. Falling to the minimum for many years began on August 25 when the FED Chairman Janet Yellen did not make any statements related with the country's monetary policy during the symposium in Jackson Hole, which confirmed investors' doubts of a further increase of the interest rate. Then the geopolitical factors, unemployment growth by 4.4%, a reduced volume of manufacturing production in July in 3.3% contrinuted to negatively affecting the USD value.


                At the same time it is likely that the minimum has already been achieved and the current phase of consolidation can be the beginning of a flat trend. However, today the dollar can get some support from the release of new economic statistics: the market is waiting for the data on trade balance, and the PMI indices of business activity. Next week we also expect data about retail sales and consumer price indices.


                At the moment volatility is very low. The MACD and RSI oscillators do not give us any signals for trading positions. In this situation it's necessary to pay attention to the entry points SEK 7,908 and 8.0, the achievement of which would indicate the completion of the consolidation phase. Now, the most effective course would be the deals to Buy in medium-term trading.


                Comment


                • #23


                  NZD/USD: Short Review & Analysis


                  We expect the pair to move in a slightly bearish way today.


                  Today we would look at the NZD/USD currency pair.


                  For some time now the pair has been moving in a bearish manner below 0.7217, down from 0.7247 previously. The level of 0.7217 actually proves to be an insurmountable resistance level for the NZD/USD at this moment that the pair is simply incapable of overcoming. The NZD/USD seems to be inching closer to the nearby support at 0.7174, so we need to stay alert and be patient until the sideways price channel is fully formed.


                  Quite on the contrary, Wednesday saw the pair attempting to make new gains, trading above the first resistance and climbing towards the second one at 0.7290. After it failed to overcome it, it retreated to the type of movement we see today. It is not very likely that we would see the pair climb to the second resistance, since the first one is proving to be quite challenging. Therefore, we can wait and see if the NZD/USD will actually drop further down and provide us with a good opportunity to trade on a more pronounced bearish trend.


                  In the current scenario it would be best if we took sell positions below the resistance at 0.7247, placing our first target at the nearby support level at 0.7174. If the NZD/USD drops further down, our second target would be 0.7144.


                  Currently the pair is trading around 0.7198, above the support levels. All technical indicators are unanimously giving us a strong sell signal.

                  Comment


                  • #24


                    The North Korean Crisis


                    Tensions continue to rise as North Korea's Independence Day looms around the corner.


                    One could hardly go through this week without hearing about what is shaping up to be the biggest global issue right now: North Korea. The isolated communist state came under the spotlight three weeks ago when North Korea leader Kim Jong Un announced his intention to launch an attack on Guam, a territory under the jurisdiction of the United States. What ensued was a series of threats between Trump and Kim Jong Un, which led to a tense situation on the global financial markets. The stress began to ease off last week, but on Sunday the world awoke in chaos again, as North Korea performed a successful test of a hydrogen bomb in the ocean, which resulted in an earthquake felt in neighboring South Korea and Japan.


                    Even though there were no casualties, this strike was quite significant. For one thing, many countries had speculated that North Korea did not have the technology to successfully mount such a destructive bomb on a missile, nor to aim it properly. Since the country lives under a self-imposed isolation from the rest of the world, their development has been hampered by a lack of exchange of technologies. It has also been very difficult for the rest of the world to evaluate the readiness and conditions for war in North Korea due to the lack of information (or, rather, the state propaganda that is broadcast instead of information, which many suspect is inaccurate). However, this strike proved that North Korea is much farther ahead in its nuclear program than previously assumed – a power on which Kim Jong Un’s regime relies. The North Korean leader has repeatedly ignored the condemnation of the United Nations regarding his nuclear weapons – and from his perspective, as someone who faces many enemies and might have to protect his position with force, it makes sense that he wants to hold on to his weapons.


                    It is also important to add that while hydrogen bombs are not talked about as often as atomic ones, they are in fact more dangerous. The test that North Korea performed had five-six times the magnitude of what the USA used in the devastating World War II attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan. If North Korea does have the means to send these missiles across the globe to attack North America, the destruction will be unprecedented.


                    To try to mitigate the crisis before the irreversible occurs, the United Nations again spoke about sanctions against North Korea. The United States, arguably the loudest voice in the argument, has suggested a ban on exporting oil to North Korea. Without fuel, the country would definitely be forced to reconsider its policies, but it might also cause a serious economic crisis in the country where the living standard is already reportedly poor enough.


                    Even if an oil embargo could success in theory, we might not see it in practice. North Korea trades with two countries: Russia and China, both of which are members of the UN Security Council and could veto the embargo. Even though both have spoken against North Korea’s recent actions, it is unlikely that they would support anything too harsh. China, in particular, does not wish to lose its position of importance in North Korea. Russia too is protecting its interests by supporting the claim that an oil embargo will endanger the civilian population more than it would neutralize the military program of North Korea. The United Nations Security Council is yet to vote on any measures against North Korea.


                    Meanwhile, amid the geopolitical tensions we saw the financial markets in disarray. Stocks moved up and down, as did currencies. The dollar lost some of its positions against major currencies, and the EUR/USD was able to pass the psychological threshold at $1.20. We should note, however, that the American dollar also suffered for other reasons – the destruction caused by hurricane Harvey hasn’t been fully documented yet, and the US southern coast is again in danger of another hurricane, Irma.


                    The big winner this week has without a doubt been the gold, which reached its highest level in a year. As a safe haven asset, gold is attractive to traders who find other instrument too insecure at the moment. Now the markets are holding their breath as tomorrow North Korea celebrates its independence and there might be another attack to “commemorate” the day. As long as the tensions continue, we are likely to see this trend stick around.

                    Comment


                    • #25


                      GBP/NZD: Technical Outlook before UK Bank Rate


                      The GBP/NZD is ahead of 1.8360 after breaking through the resistance area.


                      If you want to be successful in Forex trading, you have to follow your rules and your trusted analysis, especially if you use classical methods of analysis. In our last report about the GBP/NZD pair we recommended buying the pair for several reasons: lthe pair had reached further than 61.8% Fibonacci and was trading above the ascending trend line, and there also was a double bottom pattern, all of which are signs which told us to buy the pair. This is why we bought it at 1.7700 - we have taken our profit at 1.7850. Then we bought the pair again after breaking the neckline at 1.7885 and the prices hit our target today at 1.8230.


                      The pair is now trading around 38.2% Fibonacci in a series of impulse waves, after it reached 1.7500 - close to the upside trend line. The pair has a resistance area at 1.8362 which the pair is expected to reach in the next few days. That is in case the pair is still trading above the support area at 1.7906 and the moving average 50. The Stochastic indicator started giving us a sell signal, which is a sign that the pair will make a downward correction movement.


                      The Next Few Days


                      From this classical analysis of the pair we can’t take any positions now at the current level. We can buy the GBP/NZD at the support level 1.7906 or sell at the resistance level 1.8362, but we prefer the buying scenario for the next trading days. In effect, we can take a buy position now with a small volume and keep our target at 1.8362.


                      This week the market has some hot news from the UK like the CPI and the official bank rate next Thursday.


                      Comment


                      • #26


                        What will happen to the dollar index after "Irma" and "Harvey"



                        The calculation of losses from natural disasters is out.


                        Hurricane Irma has almost calmed down and now it’s time to assess the damage. After Harvey's passing about $ 12 billion were already paid for insurance payments. Of course, losses, in this case, were incurred by insurance companies. The fact is that as of June 20, 2016 in Harris County, a region that includes Houston, only 15% of the property was insured against floods. Also there is a National Flood Insurance Program. The program pays damages to those who do not have flood insurance, and often borrows from the Treasury Department to fulfill their claims obligations.


                        We will be able to observe after a full assessment of the damage from natural disasters, a surge of activity related to the need to restore the affected regions. This means activity in the real estate and employment market, which can help the dollar strengthen its position.


                        On the other hand, these are internal costs that will be covered by the state. Therefore, experts differ in their judgments, how this will affect the economy and where the dollar index will go.


                        At the moment, the index continues its downward movement after yesterday's slight increase and at the moment is 91.78.


                        Comment


                        • #27

                          GBP/CAD Technical Outlook after the Channel Breaking Out



                          The GBP/CAD is ahead of 1.6611 and 1.6850 after breaking the channel.

                          In our recent report about the GBP/CAD currency pair we recommended selling the pair and the prices already hit our first target at 1.5927 to make a profit of +220 pips, then the pair returned back to break the price channel and the resistance level last Thursday.

                          The price channel which we were trading inside was strong because it has 5 tops and 4 bottoms, so when the prices broke upwards from it, the pair rose more on Friday to trade now around 1.6525. The prices recorded the highest level on Friday at 1.6574, close to the resistance level at 1.6611. We expect the price to reach the resistance and make new highs but we have to be careful in case the pair makes a price action pattern on the resistance area. The MACD indicator gave us the buy signal last week.

                          The Next Few Days

                          After we saw the prices break up the price channel we should only think of buy orders, as there are no sell opportunities anymore in these levels. We can take a buy position now at the current level 1.6523 and keep our first target at 50% Fibonacci at 1.6850, and the second one at 1.7050. We can take another buy order if the pair declined to the moving average 50 on the daily chart.

                          Bank of England governor Carney will speak today at the Central Banking Lecture hosted by the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC and we have the retail sales from the UK on Wednesday, in addition to the CPI and retail sales from Canada on Friday, so we have to be careful due to the news this week.


                          Last edited by SuperForex; 09-18-2017, 02:08 PM.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            GBP/JPY Technical Analysis before BoJ Policy Rate

                            The GBP/JPY rally will continue after retesting the broken level.

                            The GBP/JPY rally hasn’t finished yet. The pair recorded its highest prices in more than 14 months after the Brexit vote on June 23 last year. The pair had a strong resistance area at 147.93, which it tried to break three times before and failed in December, May and last July, but this month is different because the pair broke it up last Friday.

                            The pair is now trading at 150.65, above the support area and the trend line. Last month the pair broke the trend line down but it found the support area which we mentioned before and failed to break it, then we noticed rising bottoms before coming back to trade above the line. Yesterday the pair moved up and down and then closed its candle a little bit below the opening price, so prices could visit the broken area 147.95-148.25 again to retest it and then will go up.

                            The Next Few Days

                            The next few days we won’t think about selling the GBP/JPY pair, only buy it. The prices are now in the middle between support and resistance areas, so we can take a buy order now with a small lot and take another buy order when it retests the broken area around 148.00 or the trend line or the moving average 50, keeping our targets at 152.80.

                            This week the markets don’t offer much hot news from the UK, except for the retail sales data tomorrow. We also have something important on Thursday this week - the Bank of Japan’s decision about the policy rate, which is expected no change at -0.10%.
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                            • #29


                              GBP/EUR Technical analysis



                              The pair is moving within a downward trend.

                              At this moment the pair is trading in a down trend, slowing down near its resistance levels. We can also note that against the backdrop of strong data, the pair can quickly overcome the nearby resistance levels, as it happened after the press conference of the Bank of England, against which the pound sharply increased its quotes.

                              Today at 4.30 pm (GMT +3), ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to speak at a press conference. It is necessary to closely monitor the investor sentiment, as many feel that the euro will be pressured and our pair will continue the downward movement.

                              Our advice for you is to set medium goals and small stop-loss orders.

                              Support and resistance levels:

                              0.8880

                              0.8825

                              0.8780

                              0.8715


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                              • #30
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